The double crisis,covid 19 and the economy.

Ever since the first reports of the novel corona virus covid-19 started coming out of the Chinese city of Wuhan,where the first cases were reported, it was immediately accompanied by the expectations of an economic storm.The city was put on lockdown,a draconian measure that only underscored the danger posed by the new virus to the world population because of it’s ease of spreading.And spread fast it did,reaching almost all the countries on earth in under three months!Initial fears were mainly on it’s high fatality rate,which fear became managed after it was proven that it was only fatal to those with serious underlying health issues,but that did little to calm the global panic,as the death toll rose,and number of infections soared.It was not long before the crisis in management of the outbreak,now a global pandemic,revealed to the world that it had almost an equally damaging effect on the economy,as the world went on lockdown.This is not the opening of a science fiction novel,it’s the description of a present reality. The crisis is still very much on today,even with the breakthrough by Russia in developing an effective vaccine,sputnik v,which is yet to be mass produced.It has led to comparisons of systems of government and how they have fared in managing the crisis,like the democratic west,which has fared poorly in comparison to the authoritarian governments of Russia and china.This according to a post on the lion’s roar, https://lionmambo.blogspot.com/2020/09/the-king-factor-in-politics-and.html is because non democratic governments offer more stability to their citizens.Geopolitically,the Russia china axis has won over the west in how the crisis has been managed,with far reaching consequences for the world.For instance,values of freedom and capitalism promoted by the west have paled in importance to the majority of the world population compared to the managed society approach of Russia and China.This gives more clout to the winners! Economically the world has taken a hit,with the federal reserve bank of USA adopting quantitative easing measures that have served to debase the dollar,and lead to confidence questions on it’s continued utility as a reserve currency.This could well be the foretaste of the fall of the dollar as a reserve currency,and only adds to the narrative of a declining USA as a superpower.The Chinese economy,on the other hand is projected to grow at only 3 percent this year,half what it was in 2019.Demand for goods and services has dipped the world over,as households endure reduced disposable income.I was in a small town in Kenya recently,Emali,along the Nairobi Mombasa highway,and I witnessed empty residential real estate space,after the teachers who occupied the property had to leave for their rural homes following the closure of schools thanks to the corona virus crisis.What’s worse,those still occupying the property where paying half the previous rates.The effect is even more pronounced in bigger towns with higher population,but this example of a small town underscores the point.Some businesses like those in the hospitality industry have closed down,never to reopen again.The consequent unemployment surge will no doubt create a mental health crisis,as citizens break under economic pressure. There is however a good side to the crisis,as African governments have done an unexpectedly good job at managing the crisis,which hasn’t become as unmanageable as in other places like the USA,the most affected country in the planet.So much for President Trump’s branding of African countries as shit holes earlier on!Kenya has done a particularly good job of managing the crisis,but corruption claims in relation to resources for fighting the pandemic at the health ministry threaten to mar the picture.But what can I say,people are never perfect!Politics in Kenya have certainly taken a back seat as the covid 19 crisis sucks all the attention,a deserved break from the monotony of politics being the hottest media issue.The same is true of most African countries,and even globally,including a slump in political activity in the USA. The lesson from the double crisis of health and economy caused by the covid 19 is that you can never be sure of tomorrow,and as the world becomes more interconnected,no one in one is immune to events happening in a different country.The world afterall,caught a chill from china.No one can say with certainty that this is the last time.As for reports that the virus came from eating bats and snakes,all I can say is that one man,s meat is another man’s poison,..literally!This is not to discount the theory that the virus was a biological weapon developed either by the USA or China.The truth is that we may never know it’s true origins,but in the event that it was lab developed,may the scientists develop a conscience.The consensus is that the virus has directly led to the death of many,and proved that the west is not the green pasture the rest of the world deemed it.It’s systems,like the healthcare systems,proved more dysfunctional than those of developing nations,while Africans proved they can manage a crisis better than,say, the USA or Italy. 

Author:Wangui.